In Ukraine, Russia has been able to use its own satellite capabilities and has been bolstered by readily available commercial imagery.

“I think both Ukrainians and the Russians on the ground are learning some painful lessons about what I’m going to call the ubiquity of sensing and targeting,” said David A. Ochmanek, a researcher at the RAND Corporation and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for force development. 

“Now, there are ways to counter space-based sensors,” Ochmanek added. “There are ways to counter airborne sensors at all levels. But it seems to me, on this battlefield at least, that if you want to survive, you’ve got to be dispersed, you’ve got to be mobile, you’ve got to be hidden.”

While commercial satellite imagery was once the domain of a few nations with high-end space capabilities, journalists, open-source intelligence trackers on social media, and adversaries can now all access it.

“One of the issues that was raised by the senior officials in the Ministry of Defense and Air Force back when I visited Kyiv was, ‘Can you help us please figure out a way to deny commercial satellite coverage that the Russians are using to see what we’re doing here in Ukraine?’ So, yeah, sensing has become ubiquitous,” said retired Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and a former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance in the Air Force. “We see that today unfolding in that battle space, and it’s going to be with us everywhere else.”

Coupled with the proliferation of guided munitions—and the ability to use unguided munitions more accurately—that imagery is putting more and more targets at risk.

“Bottom line, if there’s anything bigger than a bread box that you’re interested in, it’s going to be targeted,” Deptula added.

The war in Ukraine has also featured the use of drones—including quadcopters, first-person view one-way attack drones, and Iranian-designed Shaheds—throughout the battlefield. Some of the most high-profile uses have seen Ukraine and Russia carry out deep strikes with unmanned aerial vehicles. But there are other uses as well, such as loitering over infantry units and for artillery spotting.

The U.S. military has long been the world’s foremost operator of ISR drones, but it is also turning to commercial satellite imagery to augment those aircraft.

The Space Force has used its Tactical Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Tracking (TacSRT) program, which gets tactical information from commercial providers, to support combatant commanders. Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said the U.S. has been able to use such capabilities to provide “overwatch” of U.S. troops withdrawing from Niger over the past few months.

“That used to be done by an MQ-9 or something like that, and they were able to take this commercial satellite imagery and then put some intelligence behind it and get it down to the operators on the ground in an hour and a half,” added Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa (USAFE-AFA), during a roundtable with reporters. “That’s not as good as real-time as with an MQ-9 you would have, but it’s better than nothing.”

The proliferation of satellite imagery has not only been employed as a military tool but as a diplomatic one. In the run-up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. government declassified intelligence that Russia was planning an invasion—the most striking example in the prelude to the war was imagery showing Russian troops near the border, a sight hard for the Kremlin to brush off.

“I could step back to the couple months prior and then the initial invasion … don’t forget the importance of information sharing and what we did at the beginning to bring together the team that was able to facilitate at least the deterrence on the Eastern flank for NATO,” said retired Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, the commander of USAFE-AFA at the time of the Russian invasion and Hecker’s predecessor. “The way we were able to share information at speed to the right people from the strategic to the tactical level, build trust and confidence across the force—and without that, you’re never going to be able to win.”

Continuing resolutions have become the norm each year as Congress repeatedly fails to approve appropriations bills on time. CRs keep spending levels frozen at the previous year’s marks and prevents new programs from being started.

A continuing resolution would hamper promised pay increases for troops, hinder nuclear modernization, and pause purchases of weapons and aircraft the Air Force sees as key in a future war with China, among other impacts outlined in a fact sheet the Department of the Air Force provided to Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“Any length of CR impacts readiness, hinders acceleration of the Space Force, delays military construction projects, reduces aircraft availability, and curbs modernization in the race for technological superiority,” the department argued. “These impacts get dramatically more perilous as sequestration is imposed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.”

Fresh details on a stopgap bill’s possible impact on the Air Force and Space Force came hours before the House failed to pass a six-month CR proposed by Republicans that would keep the federal government running on the fumes of fiscal 2024 funding until March 28, 2025. 

Lawmakers have until Sept. 30 to approve a spending bill to avoid a government shutdown starting Oct. 1.

The Pentagon routinely opposes stopgap spending legislation, arguing the measures erode military readiness by jeopardizing acquisition and training and injecting uncertainty into the defense industry. 

The Air Force seeks a budget of $188.1 billion in fiscal 2025; the Space Force requested $29.4 billion.

Under a three-month CR, the Department of the Air Force said, space launch and testing modernization would fall short and technologies that protect space-based communications could not enter production. Such a bill would also hit routine maintenance of aircraft and other equipment, the Air Force’s flight training budget, facilities upkeep, and upcoming contract awards.

A six-month CR could stop the Air Force from buying greater numbers of high-end munitions like the extended-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile, and Stand-In Attack Weapon. That could trigger a $400 million fine for failing to meet contract obligations, the Air Force said, and hurt Air Force and Navy stockpiles.

Such a bill would delay production of the first seven T-7A Red Hawk training jets by a year and keep flat the number of MH-139 Grey Wolf patrol helicopters in production at Boeing, the service said. Fighter programs are also at risk; a CR may restrict future F-35 Lightning II contracts and delay further production of the new F-15EX Eagle II, “potentially leading to [a] production line break and [delaying] support for fielded active and ANG aircraft,” the Air Force said.

After six months, the Air Force may also struggle to cover increases in military pay or dole out bonuses designed to keep Airmen in critical and undermanned career fields. A CR could delay Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve training and affect funding for “must-pay” housing and subsistence stipends, the service said.

And while less likely, a yearlong CR may postpone progress toward the department’s strategic goals, stall the Space Force’s advancement, and prevent dozens of major construction projects from getting underway.

Work on Collaborative Combat Aircraft, the Air Force’s top priority effort to field a fleet of drone wingmen, would also see delays under a yearlong CR, the service said.

If a CR is still in place on April 30, 2025, federal discretionary spending would automatically be slashed to meet caps imposed by the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act.

“These actions not only stifle modernization, but inalterably give ground to our adversaries by reducing [Department of the Air Force] buying power by $15 [billion],” the department said.

CRs also prevent the services from launching new programs, slowing research and development, and pausing projects to restore or replace neglected buildings on base. 

The Department of the Air Force flagged 33 new construction projects totaling $2.1 billion, from aircraft simulator facilities to a child care center, that would be put on hold under a CR. At least $1.3 billion more in research, procurement and maintenance initiatives—not including classified programs—would also face delays.

Military officials are asking for an exception to the restriction on new starts for at least five efforts. Those include a Space Force program to develop secure tactical communications satellites, “bunker-buster” bombs designed to penetrate targets deep underground, and nuclear weapons security.

Service leaders fear potential budgetary woes could hit programs of all sizes and across all missions. 

Speaking to reporters at AFA’s Air, Space and Cyber Conference here Sept. 16, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin said a sweeping new training exercise, slated for next summer to practice for a prospective war with China, could be pared back without adequate funding in place. Space Force Brig. Gen. Kristin L. Panzenhagen, the top officer overseeing launch facilities at Florida’s Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, said the service may have trouble awarding the next National Security Space Launch contract—which hires commercial firms to take military satellites and payloads to orbit—if they don’t get a new budget.

Air Force Undersecretary Melissa G. Dalton predicted that a CR could delay bringing on the service’s secretive new B-21 Raider stealth bomber as well as postpone development of a new land-based nuclear missile and efforts to maintain the current arsenal.

“The stakes are pretty high,” Dalton said Sept. 18. “We need resources aligned and on time.”

As a last-ditch effort to support top priorities that would be neglected by a CR, service leaders can ask lawmakers to repurpose existing funds away from other programs. It’s unclear whether the Department of the Air Force will lean on that option in the absence of stable funding.

“We’re going to be doing as much as we can to continue our momentum on moving things forward,” Allvin said. “If that requires reprogramming, then we’ll … pursue those as necessary. But I really can’t give you a very precise answer on that now, until we see … how long that continuing resolution would be.”

News Editor Greg Hadley and Pentagon Editor Chris Gordon contributed to this story.